"If I can just get in front of people, I close 70-80% of them. I just need more qualified leads."

I hear some version of this every week. From MSP owners, from service business owners, from sellers. And the internet agrees with them — scroll any social media feed and it's wall-to-wall advice on "how to get more leads."

But when we pop the hood on these businesses, the same picture shows up over and over.

The 80% close rate is real. It's just built on four or five deals a year — warm referrals and high-intent inbound. People who were pre-sold before the first call and survived an inefficient sales process because they'd already made up their minds.

And the owner assumes more leads will behave the same way.

The Drunk Driver Problem

Annie Duke, a professional poker player, has a concept in her book Thinking in Bets that nails this: don't confuse a winning outcome with a winning process.

Play a bad hand terribly, get lucky, and win — and you'll start thinking you should play that hand the same way every time. Mathematically, you're going to lose. The process is wrong. The outcome just hasn't caught up yet.

Her best example: a guy drives home drunk and makes it home safely. No one get hurt. No one gets arrested. Winning outcome. Should he repeat the process?

An 80% close rate on four warm referrals is a winning outcome, not a winning process.

More leads don't scale the outcome. They expose a weak sales process.

Cold Traffic Is a Different Sport

I watch this play out in our SDR Accelerator program on repeat.

An owner comes in wanting more leads. We install an SDR. Appointments and conversations start hitting the calendar. And within a couple weeks, the owner starts kicking them back to the SDR.

"This wasn't a good lead. They didn't know who we were. They weren't actively shopping for IT services."

I know. Your SDR is starting conversations for you.

If you want to maximize sales, you maximize conversations with people in your ICP — and you use your qualifying process to filter for intent. That's the entire point of the qualifying call.

Especially when you’re selling a service that only 3% of your market is actively shopping for at any given time. You have the conversations, confirm who’s in your market, sell the idea of moving forward in the process, or work to nurture the relationship over time.

But when a business with no marketing, no brand recognition, and no real sales process insists their SDR deliver only ready-to-buy leads, they're telling me they don't have a good sales or marketing process. Because filtering is exactly what good processes do.

Warm referrals never required one. They closed themselves. Cold traffic demands real qualifying, legitimate discovery, and a stronger close — exactly the muscles most businesses asking for "more leads" have never had to build.

Do the Reverse Math

Most $5-10MM MSPs tell me they'd be happy with one new logo per month from their salesperson.

At a 50% close rate, that's 2 presentations.

To get 2 presentations, you need about 3 discovery calls.

To get 3 discovery calls, maybe 4 to 6 qualifying conversations with people in your target market.

Six. That's the actual number — even if half get disqualified forever.

And look what those six conversations are worth. One new logo a month adds $50k+ in MRR every single year. Do that five years running and you've added over $3MM in recurring revenue to the top line.

If that's how your funnel converts, carry on. You've got real sales and marketing in place, and your only job is optimizing it.

Now Run It With a Leak

Watch what happens to that same math without a solid process underneath it.

Your presentations close at 25% instead of 50%. Now you need 4 presentations, not 2.

Your discovery calls ghost you at the assessment stage — no next step locked in, no decision-maker in the room. Now you need 6 to 8 discovery calls, not 3.

Your follow-up takes three days instead of five minutes. Leads get one email instead of a sequence. Qualified conversations get kicked back because they weren't "shopping for IT services."

Now you need 15 to 20 conversations a month to feed the machine, not 6.

Same one deal. Triple the volume. And triple the effort.

And that's the trap: the leak never feels like a leak. It feels like a lead shortage. So the owner goes shopping for more leads, pours them into the same process, and the leak just runs faster.

Run the Test First

Next time you catch yourself thinking "I just need more leads," ask one question before you spend a dollar on lead gen:

Could my current process turn six qualifying conversations a month into a deal — without leaking them?

If yes, go get more leads. Build your list the way you’ve been building it. Volume will treat you well.

If not, more leads can still work — you'll just work three times harder for the same deal. Some teams can muscle through that. Most owner-led sales operations can't. They run out of steam somewhere around conversation five, and the channel gets blamed for what the process leaked.

Fix the leak first. Then go get all the leads your system can handle.

Adios,

Ray

P.S. — Speaking of qualifying conversations: we just updated our own. The 15-minute clarity call that kicks off our sales process is now a voice & text AI agent, live at mspsalespartners.com.

Instead of booking a call two or three days out to find out if we're a fit, prospects hit "Talk" and know in 2-3 minutes after a conversation with an AI agent. Faster for them, more calendar and higher sales velocity for us.

It's beta, and I have an expensive engineer standing by watching the data. My invite to all 7,000 of you: give her a test drive. Try to break her. She's trained to screen MSPs in our target market, but hell, ask her to deliver a pizza and see what happens.

Once she's refined, this may become something we offer clients too. If that interests you, hit reply and I'll keep you posted.

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